The Democrats must be in a panic considering how strongly President Trump’s poll numbers look compared to Biden’s. Look for them to displace Biden at their convention. The problem they have is that they have no one who can beat Trump. Not even if they cheat. Trump’s lead could be too big to rig. At no other time in President Trump’s political career, have his poll numbers been as good as they are now. That includes 2016 when he kicked Hillary’s butt.
Do you really believe Joe Biden has a path to victory?
Over all, President Trump is leading in the Real Clear Polling by anywhere from 2 to 6 points. As good as that looks, it gets better when you look at the numbers from the swing states. In the seven most competitive swing states, Trump leads by 4 to 12 points. Even more importantly, Trump appears to be making major gains in New York and Minnesota and has a huge lead in deep blue Nevada.
Nevada was a state that was considered safely Democratic as recently as 2020. The Silver State has not been won by a Republican since George Bush eked out a 3 point victory over John Kerry back in 2004. This was not a state that pundits considered would ever become competitive again, given the changing demographic realities on the ground — and the Democratic Party’s previous monopoly over Hispanics, a group that represents an outsized portion of Nevada’s voters in recent years. But President Trump has defied all expectations: he now leads there by anywhere between 5 and a 13-point margin – putting him safely beyond the margin of error. In addition, the presidential frontrunner commands significant leads in both Georgia (+4.0) and Arizona (+4.1), two states that were subject to widespread voter fraud that unfairly turned the tables to Biden’s advantage four years ago.
North Carolina, once considered an intensely competitive battleground that Trump just squeaked by in his previous two presidential runs, is now safely in the Republican’s corner – so much so that most pundits have already written it off as being safely red, even though Obama carried the state in 2008.
VISIT OUR YOUTUBE CHANNELPerhaps most significantly of all, formerly competitive states like Florida (+11.0) and Ohio (+10.0), are no longer even being counted as battlegrounds. The 45th President’s lead is so massive in those two states that they are now being grouped in the same category as states like Texas and Kentucky, which President Trump easily carried in both previous cycles, as being well out of Biden’s reach.
The verdict explaining this momentum is clear: if the election were held today, President Trump would win by a larger electoral margin than 2016 and amass more popular votes than he did in 2020. Today, the President can safely bet that he will win all the above swing states, cruising to at least a 312 to 226 electoral college victory. And that analysis discounts states like Minnesota, a state that Reagan could not even carry in his landslide victory in 1984, where polling now showcases President Trump behind by a measly two points.
If the election were held today, the President would easily win all the competitive battleground states (WI, MI, PA, NC, GA, AZ, and NV), cruising to at least a 312 to 226 electoral college victory (outpacing his historic 304 to 227 victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016). There is a possibility that President Trump can also pick off states like Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine, Virginia, and even New Jersey — and possibly New York, given his current momentum.
So too does the analysis disregard states like Maine, New Hampshire, and even New Jersey, where Biden’s “lead” in at least two of those three states has shrunken to within the margin of error. Recent polling out of the Garden State would likewise suggest the 45th President has more than a fighting chance: he’s behind by only 5 points there according to the Emerson College Poll from March. This is a lead that has likely evaporated further still in the wake of the historic presidential rally President Trump held earlier this month in Wildwood, that broke records for the largest presidential rally in state history.
