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Elon Musk’s Big Political Party Fantasy Just Blew Up in His Face

The data says Musk just handed MAGA the biggest advantage yet.

by Rich Welsh
July 6, 2025
in 2026 Midterms, America First, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, MAGA, Opinion, Politics
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Elon Musk’s Big Political Party Fantasy Just Blew Up in His Face
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Elon Musk might be a genius with rockets, but politically? He just pulled a Wile E. Coyote move — straight off the cliff, and now he’s looking down.

The guy seriously thinks he can destroy the Republican Party and build his own little “America Party.” Sounds cunning, right? Too bad the math says otherwise. This might go down as the costliest political blunder in American history.

Musk’s “America Party” is already toast. It never stood a chance. And funny enough, this train wreck might actually be a blessing for conservatives.

Let’s deal with the obvious problem Musk is pretending not to see. The Republican Party? It’s crushing the voter registration game. Not a little. Not pretty good. It’s a full-on realignment happening right in front of us.

Look at Pennsylvania. In Pennsylvania alone, Republicans have slashed the Democrat registration advantage from 630,000 in 2021 to just 70,000. That’s not just a dent. That’s a 560,000 voter swing in just three years.

How about Nevada? In Nevada, Republicans just overtook Democrats in registration for the first time in nearly 20 years. And Florida? It’s not even a swing state anymore. In Florida, the GOP now boasts a staggering 1 million more registered voters than Democrats.

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It’s not just a trend. It’s a tidal wave. Nationwide, Republicans are outpacing Democrats in registration gains by a ratio of four to one. Since 2020, Democrats have lost 3.5 million registered voters. And Republicans? Republicans have gained nearly a quarter-million. That’s not drift. That’s a shift.

So what exactly is Musk up to here? Well, he’s pulling a Ross Perot. Remember that name? He’s trying to ‘Ross Perot’ the Republican Party — split the vote and play spoiler. How’d that work out? Perot got 19% of the vote in 1992 and didn’t win a single state. But he did hand the presidency to Bill Clinton by siphoning off conservative voters.

And Musk isn’t being subtle about his plan. Musk has already said he plans to target two or three Senate seats and eight to ten House races. Translation: he wants to blow up key swing races. The only people cheering this on are Chuck Schumer and AOC. That tells you everything.

But here’s where the story changes. This isn’t the 90s anymore. Republicans aren’t fractured. They’re fired up. Musk is trying to dress up the same tired Libertarian model and sell it like it’s something new.

Let’s look at history. Libertarians have been around for 50 years. Their biggest moment? Gary Johnson got 3.3% of the vote in 2016 — and Trump still won. Why? Because conservatives stayed locked in. Libertarians often lean left when it counts, aligning with open borders and globalist policies.

And while Musk is recycling old blueprints, Republicans are building skyscrapers. Republicans have built the strongest voter registration advantage in decades. Florida, once a swing state, has over a million new Republican voters. Meanwhile, Libertarians can’t even crack 4% nationally.

And don’t buy the pitch that this new party is conservative. Look at who’s involved. The two most prominent names in Musk’s ‘America Party’ are Andrew Yang and Mark Cuban. That’s not a movement. It’s a club for disillusioned Democrats. Honestly, Musk may end up hurting Democrats more than Republicans.

Here’s where Musk tragically misreads the room. He still thinks MAGA is fringe. Here’s what Musk doesn’t get — and what establishment Republicans are finally starting to understand. MAGA is no longer a fringe movement. It’s the mainstream of the Republican Party. How do we know? A Vanderbilt poll recently found that 52% of Republicans now identify solidly as MAGA — for the first time, a majority.

It’s not 2016 anymore. Trump isn’t fighting the establishment. MAGA is the establishment now. So why would anyone bail on the winning team to follow a billionaire who thinks politics works like a tech startup?

They won’t. And that’s why Musk’s America Party is shaping up to be the most expensive political failure in American history.

Even if he could convince people to join him, the actual work of building a party? It’s a nightmare. Building a political party isn’t like building an electric car. You can’t just throw money at it and expect it to run.

Check out California. In California alone, a new party needs 75,000 registered members or 1.1 million signatures just to appear on the ballot. That’s just to get started. Then it needs to sustain those numbers or win at least 2% of statewide races. Multiply that by all 50 states. Now you’re burning through hundreds of millions in legal fees.

Meanwhile, Republicans already have the machine in place. The data. The volunteers. The infrastructure. Republicans already have the national infrastructure, a ground game, and most importantly, they’ve got an energized momentum.

Even in tough election years? Republicans are poised to gain seats. Why? Because of those voter registration swings in key states like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona. Thank you, Scott Pressler.

Democrats? They’re running on fumes. Their voter base is shrinking in real time, and they know they can’t replace the losses. The numbers just aren’t there. And when parties start losing ground, history shows they usually make the same mistake: they lurch toward their most radical fringe. They assume their core voters won’t leave, so they chase the extremists in hopes of rebuilding momentum. But it backfires. The more radical the party becomes, the faster everyday Americans — the so-called normies — start walking away. And that’s where the Democratic Party finds itself today.

And now let’s talk about the guy Musk is stepping on: Donald Trump. You can love him or hate him, but there’s no denying this — he built this movement. And he’s not letting a Silicon Valley billionaire come in and hijack it.

Trump has already made it clear that he’s ready to go to war with Musk politically. And let’s be honest, when Trump fights, he fights to win. The gloves come off. Every government contract, every regulatory approval, every taxpayer-funded subsidy Musk depends on… those become leverage in Trump’s hands. And the America First MAGA movement will all support Trump in this war.

If Elon had any political instincts, he’d work with this movement. But ego has a way of making smart people do very stupid things. I think Elon has been acting like the world’s richest child since his fall from grace with the White House. He’s not behaving like an adult, and that’s very unfortunate. I like Elon and what he has accomplished in his short life. But the way he’s behaving is making a lot of supporters former supporters.

One investment firm, Azoria, is postponing its planned Tesla ETF launch while it awaits clarity from the Board of Directors. The insinuation here is that Azoria CEO James Fishback will not move forward unless Musk either drops his political ambitions or leaves Tesla. Ouch.

So what’s the move for conservatives? Simple. Stick with the winning strategy. Republican voter registration is surging. MAGA isn’t just a movement anymore — it’s the backbone of the party. The ground game is in place. The energy is real. And every sign points to a party that’s not just growing, but dominating.

Forget chasing a fantasy. Conservatives should focus on expanding their registration advantage and turning out every single Republican voter. Make Scott Pressler the head of the RNC. He will get the job done.

Because the data doesn’t lie. Republicans are winning the registration war, winning the enthusiasm war, and laying the groundwork for long-term political dominance — regardless of what Elon Musk does.

As Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene recently told Tucker Carlson, a lot of Republicans in the House are already celebrating, slapping backs, high-fiving, acting like the midterms are in the bag. That’s a mistake. They could absolutely lose if they don’t lock in the momentum and keep the base fired up. The problem is, Republicans have spent more time in the minority than the majority, and when they finally gain power, they tend to celebrate too soon. They lose focus, misread the electorate, and it slips away.

The lesson here is simple: win with discipline, or lose with delusion.

#elonmuskfail #magarising #trump2024

Tags: 2024 conservative momentumamerica party collapsedemocrat voter losselon musk political partygop voter registrationmaga republican surgerepublican party growthross perot strategyscott pressler rnctrump vs musk
Rich Welsh

Rich Welsh

Rich is a syndicated opinion writer who writes about politics, culture, liberty and faith. Subscribe to our YouTube channel at https://youtube.com/@rpwmedia?sub_confirmation=1

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