The 2024 election is already heating up, and some interesting patterns are emerging from the mail-in ballot data in key swing states. Traditionally, Democrats have dominated when it comes to mail-in ballots. But this time around, it looks like Republicans are catching on, learning from previous elections, and making some big moves. In fact, GOP mail-in ballots are surging in crucial states like North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. It’s got people wondering if this could be a major turning point for the Republican Party in 2024.
Back in 2022, Democrats saw a 19% increase in mail-in ballot requests compared to 2020, which, let’s be honest, was pretty impressive. But what’s really surprising is the shift happening on the Republican side—mail-in ballot requests have jumped by a whopping 85%! Yep, you read that right. It seems like the GOP is stepping up, using some of the same tactics that worked for Democrats in the past. Basically, Republicans are playing the game, and they’re playing it well.
North Carolina: Republicans Gaining Ground
North Carolina has always been a big player in elections, and this year is no different. The mail-in ballot numbers tell an interesting story. In 2020, Democrats held a solid lead with 51% of mail-in ballots compared to Republicans’ 18%. By 2022, the gap started to close a bit, and now in 2024, the shift is even more dramatic. Democrat mail-in requests have dropped to 40%, while Republicans are up to 22%.
And don’t forget, Trump won North Carolina in 2020, even when Democrats had a massive edge with mail-in voting. Now, with Democrats seeing a drop in mail-in requests and Republicans on the rise, North Carolina is shaping up to be another tight race in 2024. To make things even more interesting, voter registration is favoring Republicans two to one. So, it’s not just about mail-in ballots—Republicans are making gains across the board.
Pennsylvania: A Republican Mail-in Wave
Pennsylvania, another crucial swing state, is showing a similar trend. Democrat mail-in ballot requests are down a huge 60% from 2020, while Republican requests have shot up by 85% compared to 2022. It’s pretty clear that Republicans are taking mail-in voting seriously this time around. There’s a real enthusiasm among GOP supporters in Pennsylvania, while Democrats seem to be struggling to match their past levels of engagement.
This also lines up with the GOP’s gains in voter registration across the state. Democrats once had a massive advantage with over a million more registered voters. But now, that gap has been cut down to just a few hundred thousand. Many of these new Republican voters are working-class, both white and non-white, who are drawn to Trump’s populist message rather than the traditional GOP establishment.
VISIT OUR YOUTUBE CHANNELGeorgia: Mail-in Ballot Requests Plummet
Georgia, yet another key battleground, is seeing a dramatic drop in mail-in ballots. In 2020, there were about 800,000 mail-in ballots. But now, in 2024, that number has plummeted by a staggering 90%, with only 88,000 requests so far. This massive drop is likely due to Georgia’s new election integrity laws, which are some of the strictest in the country. And with a MAGA majority now overseeing the state’s election board, it’s clear that Georgia won’t be the mail-in stronghold it once was.
A Changing Electorate
One of the most fascinating parts of the 2024 election is the shift we’re seeing in the electorate. Whites now account for 71% of mail-in ballot requests, while Black voters have dropped to just under 12%. Compare that to 2020, when Black voters made up 16% of mail-in requests. And to make things even more challenging for Democrats, polls are showing that more Black voters are planning to vote for Trump this time around—some estimates even put the number as high as 20%.
Historian Larry Schwier notes that “this shift towards a whiter and more Republican electorate could be disastrous for Democrats.” Trump’s support among white voters has doubled since 2020, and this group now makes up a bigger chunk of the electorate. In 2020, Trump led Biden by seven points among white voters. In 2024, he’s leading Kamala Harris by 14 points—a major swing that could have a big impact on the election.
What Does It All Mean for 2024?
As we gear up for the 2024 election, the mail-in ballot data from swing states like North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Georgia paints a clear picture: Republicans are adapting to new voting methods and building momentum. What was once a tool that favored Democrats—mail-in ballots—now seems to be helping Republicans. And with voter registration also leaning toward the GOP, this election is shaping up to be one of the most competitive we’ve seen in a long time.
The decline in Democrat mail-in requests, combined with a whiter and more Republican-leaning electorate, poses a serious challenge for the Harris campaign. As November approaches, it’s clear that the GOP’s efforts to engage voters and adapt to the evolving election landscape are paying off. Whether or not these trends will continue is yet to be seen, but one thing is for sure: 2024 is going to be a battle to the finish.
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