NYT/Siena Poll Shows Kamala Leading Trump in 3 Key States Or Does She Really? You Decide

According to the NYT/Siena Poll, Kamala Harris leads in three of the swing states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Coincidentally these are the three swing states she must carry to achieve 270 electoral votes. But, the question must be asked, “Just how accurate is this polling data?” As accurate as the recent poll that shows Podunk Little League would beat the Phillies 4 to 0 in a World Series matchup. Kamala Harris has only made two policy announcements.

She takes credit for being the deciding vote to limit the cost of insulin for seniors. Unfortunately, President Trump did that when he was in office. Joe Biden canceled Trump’s policy to curry favor (And money?) from Big Pharma. In other words, she feels she should correct the mistake the Biden/Harris administration made in canceling a Trump program. Secondly, she proposed this week to end taxes on tips, which Trump proposed in June. I can’t blame her because Trump’s ideas are far superior to hers.

Let’s look at the numbers first. Here’s how the NYT celebrated the “dramatic reversal”:

Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald J. Trump in three crucial battleground states, according to new surveys by The New York Times and Siena College, the latest indication of a dramatic reversal in standing for Democrats after President Biden’s departure from the presidential race remade it.

Ms. Harris is ahead of Mr. Trump by four percentage points in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, 50 percent to 46 percent among likely voters in each state. The surveys were conducted from Aug. 5 to 9.

The polls….come after nearly a year of surveys that showed either a tied contest or a slight lead for Mr. Trump over Mr. Biden. [emphasis added]

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Much of the newfound Democratic strength stems from improved voter perceptions of Ms. Harris. Her favorability rating has increased 10 percentage points among registered voters in Pennsylvania just in the last month, according to Times/Siena polling. Voters also view Ms. Harris as more intelligent and more temperamentally fit to govern than Mr. Trump.

From Red State

Given that the legacy media has launched an all-out, lockstep effort to show Harris (and now her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz) in most positive light might have something to do with a jump like that in 30-days time. 

There are a couple of problems I see immediately, in the way the poll was conducted; the sample size is a tiny, 600 people. And the margin of error ranges from 4.3 to nearly 5 points, which skews to the high side for my taste.

But analyst Ryan Girdusky says there are even more “very big problems” with the poll: 

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Eye-popping numbers among likely voters in the NYT / Siena Swing State Poll:

Combined: Harris +5
MI: Harris +5
PA: Harris +2
WI: Harris +6

Whites: Even
Blacks: Harris +68
Suburbs: Harris +11
White College: Harris +23

$0.02: It's early but the warning lights are flashing. pic.twitter.com/7J2akni0cI

— Giancarlo Sopo (@GiancarloSopo) August 10, 2024

In case you can’t read the post, he wrote:

The NY Times/Siena polls are very high quality but I see some very big problems:

Trump isn’t losing seniors by 12

Harris isn’t tied with white voters

Trump’s margin with non-college whites is in the 30s, not 13.

I’d guess there’s some over sampling among older liberal women

He followed up with why deep doubts rise for him when looking at the NYT-Siena poll this time:

When asked to clarify what he’s asserting, Girdusky was thorough in explaining his rationale–and it’s worth sharing in full:

With very rare exceptions, the biggest indicator for future voting behaviors are past voting behaviors and averages among polling.

Trump won seniors last time by 6 and on average polls have him up by 8 among that demographic, which would seem about accurate.

So unless something radical happens to appeal to this demographic, it would hit about the same. Think Obama realigning college educated whites or Trump realigning blue-collar workers or Hispanic men.

This poll has Harris winning seniors in Michigan by 20, a 27 point swing from 2020. It’s just not in the cards.

The problem with crosstabs is in some cases like Asians, Hispanics, or blacks the sample sizes are too small to get accurate numbers and with seniors, there’s a tendency of overly active liberals (either registered D’s or Indies who always vote D) to want to answer the polls. Happened in 2020 and 2016 as well.

Once again, figures don’t lie, but liars do figure.