New York City voters aren’t just thinking differently from the rest of the state. It’s like they’re living in a different world altogether.
Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani is walking toward the mayor’s office with little resistance. But Republicans aren’t only watching the city. Their eyes are already on the bigger prize — flipping the state red next year.
Let’s start with this number. “60% of registered voters in New York … either strongly support or somewhat support returning to the pre-2019 bail laws.” Translation? People are fed up with dangerous criminals walking free. Even lifelong Democrats are saying enough is enough.
According to RealClearPolitics, Mamdani is ahead by 15 points on average across six polls taken in October. Sitting near 46%, his support has grown stronger since summer. The Manhattan Institute backs it up. The self-described socialist, regularly accused of being a communist, is still leading Andrew Cuomo, who’s trying to claw his way back with his so-called “Fight and Deliver Party.”
Republican Curtis Sliwa? He’s trailing badly — 24 points behind Mamdani and still nine points under Cuomo.
Now here’s the curveball. When voters were asked about the 2026 governor’s race, the results flipped the script. Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik actually pulled ahead of Democrat Governor Kathy Hochul. Stefanik drew 43%, Hochul 42%, while 9% wanted someone else and 7% weren’t sure.
VISIT OUR YOUTUBE CHANNELThe Stefanik campaign wasted no time celebrating. Her spokeswoman, Bernadette Breslin, dropped this statement:
“In a heavily Democrat-leaning state, an independent poll that is heavily weighted toward registered Democrat voters shows Republican Elise Stefanik leading Democrat Governor Kathy Hochul in a head-to-head matchup.”
Then she went even further. Breslin said it’s the first time in decades that a Republican candidate for governor has polled higher than a sitting Democrat. And she didn’t hold back on Hochul either:
“In a decision that she will come to regret, Kathy Hochul lives up to her title as the worst governor in America when she chose to bend the knee and put New Yorkers LAST by desperately endorsing the defund the police, tax-hiking, raging anti-Semite socialist Zohran Mamdani who will destroy New York.”
That’s not just messaging. That’s a political grenade.
Stefanik hasn’t officially entered the race yet. But insiders say she’s preparing to announce right after the November 4 election. You can already feel the momentum building.
Meanwhile, Mamdani may be cruising inside New York City, but his ideas don’t exactly inspire confidence outside it. A lot of his “progressive” promises aren’t just unpopular. They’re toxic.
Take bail reform. “60% of registered voters in New York, including 49% of Democrats, either strongly support or somewhat support returning to the pre-2019 bail laws.” That’s nearly half the Democrats saying criminals should stay locked up until trial, not released onto the streets. Mamdani? He’s pushing the opposite. He wants fewer inmates at Rikers Island.
Then there’s his headline policy: free bus service. It’s a flop. “58% of New York City respondents oppose the idea.” Nearly half of Democrats aren’t buying it. Yes, “42% of Democrats agreed with the idea that eliminating fares would make public transit more affordable and efficient for working New Yorkers while reducing conflicts between riders and operators.” But most voters see it as a giveaway that doesn’t work.
The polling went even further, asking about gifted programs in schools, corporate tax hikes, and fare evasion. The survey questioned 600 likely voters in the mayoral race and 300 registered voters statewide between October 22 and October 26. Numbers were weighted to reflect the electorate.
What does it all show? In the city, Mamdani is coasting. But statewide? The cracks are showing. Republicans smell weakness. Hochul looks exposed. Stefanik is lining up her shot. And Democrats keep attaching themselves to policies even their own voters don’t want.
#newyorkpolitics #elisestefanik #zohranmamdani
