In the upcoming 2024 presidential election, a significant shift in voter sentiment can already be observed compared to the 2020 election. These shifts are reflected in polling data from several key sources, each pointing to a noticeable swing toward former President Donald Trump. Here’s an in-depth look at the numbers and what they mean for the upcoming election.
2020 Election Recap
In 2020, despite unprecedented levels of mail-in voting (with 70% of voters participating by mail), Joe Biden won the election by just 40,000 votes in key swing states. This slim margin was spread across Arizona (10,000 votes), Georgia (10,000 votes), and Wisconsin (20,000 votes). As a result, it was the second closest election in American history, behind the Bush-Gore race in 2000.
2024 Polling Shifts: A Clear Swing Toward Trump
As we approach 2024, the polling landscape has shifted dramatically. Let’s examine three major polling aggregators: RealClearPolitics (RCP), 538, and OnPoint.
RealClearPolitics (RCP)
In 2020, the RCP average had Joe Biden leading by 7.2 points. Fast forward to today, and Kamala Harris, Biden’s vice president and presumed successor in this hypothetical scenario, holds a lead of just 1.5 points. This represents a 5.7% swing in favor of Trump. In other words, Trump is performing nearly six points better than he did in 2020.
538 Polling
538, known for being the most liberal of the polling aggregators, had Biden leading by 8.4 points in 2020. Today, Harris holds a narrower 2.8-point lead. This also represents a swing of 5.6% toward Trump.
OnPoint Polling
OnPoint, the most accurate polling aggregator in 2020, had Biden ahead by 5.3 points back then. They were within a point of Biden’s actual margin of victory, making them a highly reliable source. Today, OnPoint shows Trump leading by 2.3 points, which represents a 7.6% swing in Trump’s favor.
VISIT OUR YOUTUBE CHANNELAveraging the Swing
By averaging the polling swings from RCP (5.7%), 538 (5.6%), and OnPoint (7.6%), we arrive at an overall swing of 6.3% in Trump’s favor. This is a significant shift and points toward a potential Trump victory in 2024.
Projecting the 2024 Popular Vote
In 2020, Biden won the popular vote by a margin of 4.5%. By adjusting for the 6.3% swing in favor of Trump, we estimate that Trump could win the 2024 popular vote by nearly 2 points. This projection puts Trump at a 1.8% advantage over Biden or Harris in the upcoming election, marking a significant turnaround from the previous race.
Impact on the Electoral Map
What does a Trump +1.8 electorate look like? According to the latest polling averages, a 1.8-point Trump lead translates to Trump winning eight more Electoral College votes than he did in 2016. This would give Trump a comfortable win on the electoral map, similar to his 2016 victory but with a slightly larger margin.
Even if we exclude the OnPoint polling aggregate, which shows Trump leading by 2.3 points, and only use the RCP and 538 averages (both of which have Harris with a slight lead), the swing to Trump still results in a projected 1.2-point lead for Trump in the Electoral College. This still points to a Trump victory, albeit by a smaller margin.
Testing the Predictive Accuracy
With early voting already underway in key states like North Carolina and Florida, we are beginning to see real-time data that aligns with these polling shifts. The predictive model, which shows a Trump +2 electorate, appears to be matching up well with actual early voting numbers, further reinforcing the projection of a Trump victory.
Conclusion
As we look ahead to the 2024 election, the data suggests a clear shift in favor of Donald Trump. With a 6.3% swing from 2020 to 2024, Trump is poised to win both the popular vote and the Electoral College. That is, if the Democrats and Biden administration don’t try to assassinate him again.
While it remains too early to make definitive predictions, the numbers are certainly in Trump’s favor as the race heats up.
