If it’s one thing conservatives have learned, it is to not trust the polls. Election polls have been so off and there is such a palpable bias in favor of the Democratic Party that conservatives do better when they do not become complacent. Complacency is what killed Hillary Clinton’s campaign in 2016. That, and she as the worst candidate any political party ever nominated to run for the White House.
There is now a lot of talk about how a red wave is not coming in the November midterm elections, and I believe it’s a bunch of hogwash. Personally, I do not trust the Democratic Party to allow us to have a free and fair election ever again, but I digress.
The Democrat complacency at this point may put them in danger, and here’s why.
Polling agencies completely missed the amount of support for former President Donald Trump. Not only did they miss the extent of support for Trump, but they also did not poll people who never voted before who came out to vote for Trump because he was the first politicians in decades who said he was going to do the right thing if elected. And he did, which is why the polls undercounted Trump support again in 2020. I believe a lot of it is also found in the bias of the pollsters. Like the mainstream news media, there are very few pollsters left who do not have a left-leaning bias when doing their job.
Those very same polling errors could be affecting the perception of where Democrats stand right now less than 60 days out from the midterms.
“It is reasonable to begin to think, at this point, that there’s something systematic going on which makes Republicans, relative to the polling data, overperform,” Grant Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University said.
VISIT OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL“There seems to be some patterns state by state on that, in terms of if the Democrats are being shown to overperform,” he said.
In 2016, the undecideds and people who didn’t like either candidate, broke for Trump over Hillary. Like I said, Hillary was an awful candidate.
The 2020 race saw flawed polling as well, but it was different. According to analysis by the American Association for Public Opinion Research, races for governor and the US Senate were even more inaccurate.
“For senatorial and gubernatorial races combined, polls on average were 6.0 percentage points too favorable for Democratic candidates relative to the certified vote margin,” the analysis said.
That discrepancy caused the pollsters who conducted the analysis to conclude that the errors likely weren’t specific to Trump.
One theory of the undercounting support for Trump was that a lot of people who were polled didn’t want to admit they were voting for Trump, so they either hung up the phone or said they were voting for he Democrat. Many people also don’t trust polls so they won’t participate.
Many people believe that most if not all polls done by news media outlets are worthless because the news lies to them every day in their reporting of news, so why should they believe their polls?
To prove the point, in the 2018 midterm election cycle, the polls reflected more accurately what the results turned out to be. That’s because traditionally, the party not in the White House gains seats, and the party not in power was the Democratic Party, so there was less reason for polling bias in the Democrat’s favor.
There has been some tight polling margins in some highly watched Senate races over the last month that are fueling speculation that a red wave is not coming.,
Then we have an analysis from the New York Times that came out this week from the 2016 and 2020 elections and polls from the election cycle now that suggest Democrats are probably not really too far ahead in key Senate races. The Times’ analysis used 2016 polling errors to predict 2020 polling errors.
The analysis showed that polls in 2020 said Biden was going to win the state of Florida by 2 points. When they applied the polling error from 2016, it showed Biden was going to win Florida by 1 point. In the end, Trump won Florida in 2020 by 3 points. In Florida, 3 points is a landslide. When the Times applied the same 2016 error logic to states they looked at for 2020, the results looked much closer than they did without applying the 2016 polling errors.
According to the analysis, polls taken during this election cycle reflect the same advantages for Democrats that reflect the flawed results of 2016 and 2020.
This means if you’re a conservative or Republican, your vote counts more than ever now. Spread the word.
