Early Voting Numbers Hint at a Historic Republican Turnaround in Virginia

So, here we are. Early voting has begun in Virginia, and Republican supporters are fired up. It’s like they’ve been waiting for this moment for years. President Trump? Hung Cao? The whole Republican ticket? They’re getting a massive turnout. Meanwhile, over on the Democrat side, it’s… well, it’s quieter than you’d expect for a party trying to hold on to a state they’ve owned for two decades. Kamala Harris must be sweating bullets right about now because her campaign is stumbling—hard—in what should be safe, blue Virginia.

Virginia, which hasn’t been red since dial-up internet was a thing, looks like it’s on the verge of flipping. Early votes are trickling in, and Harris’s support is… let’s just say, it’s not looking like the glory days of Obama. Once hailed as the heir to Obama’s unstoppable momentum, Harris is now dealing with early vote tallies that say otherwise. According to the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP), the four districts with the highest voter turnout are—you guessed it—solid Republican territories. Trump’s stomping grounds, where he snagged 70% of the vote in the last election.

Let’s break it down. In the GOP’s fortress districts—Congressional Districts 1, 5, 6, and 9—over 25,000 ballots have already been cast. Compare that to just over 20,000 in the Democrat-leaning areas. Oh, and those swing districts that Democrats are counting on? Like Districts 2 and 7? They’re falling flat, with just over 7,000 votes so far. That’s a 20% lead for the Republicans in early turnout. Not exactly what Harris was hoping for, right?

Now, let’s talk about these surging red zones. What’s going on in Southwest Virginia? They’re practically flooding the polls. Counties like Buchanan, Bath, and Lee have doubled their early voting turnout since the last election, and Matthews County might just break some kind of record. Meanwhile, over in Democrat-heavy Prince William County, early voting is down—a whopping 45%. Ouch.

Statewide, the numbers don’t look any better for Harris. Areas that went for Trump are showing an 83% spike in early voting, while Biden strongholds are seeing a more modest 64% rise. That’s a 19-point gap in favor of the GOP. And if you’re wondering how important early voting is, just ask Glenn Youngkin, who closed the early voting gap in 2021 and won the governor’s race. It looks like Trump is following that same playbook, and it’s working.

Fast forward to November, and things could get even worse for Harris. She’s already had an uphill battle in a state that was supposedly deep blue. Two recent polls in Virginia don’t exactly scream confidence either. The University of Mary Washington poll has her barely leading Trump 48% to 46%. A Roanoke poll has her up by just three points, 47% to 44%. Compare that to 2020, when Biden won by 10 points, and yeah, it’s looking rough.

But wait, there’s more. Polls have been known to overestimate Democrat support in Virginia. Case in point: that same Mary Washington poll overstated Biden’s win in 2020. So even those narrow leads Harris has now? Take them with a grain of salt.

And here’s the kicker—this isn’t just a Virginia thing. Early voting is down for Democrats in other battleground states too. In North Carolina, Democrat ballot requests are down by nearly 9%, while Republicans are up 4%. If Harris is struggling this much in Virginia, where things usually lean more left, what’s going to happen in states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania? These are places that lean right compared to Virginia, and if she’s already slipping here, good luck in those states.

Early voting trends aren’t looking good for Harris, and if they keep up, it could be the beginning of the end for her campaign in Virginia. And let’s be honest—if Virginia goes red for the first time in 20 years, we’re talking historic levels of political upheaval.

Buckle up, folks. We’ve got 40 days to go, and something tells me this rollercoaster isn’t slowing down anytime soon.

#virginiapolitics #earlyvotingtrends #gopsurge